It seems like everyone has something to say about smartphones these days--and everyone seems to have their favorite horse. Some think RIM's Blackberry, the incumbent stalwart, will continue its success. Some think Nokia's Symbian OS will gain ground. Then again, who would count out Apple? The iPhone has seen great adoption in the consumer market, essentially expanding the overall smartphone market.
But this is just the beginning.
Similar to Apple's effect of expanding the smartphone horizons, Google will soon come to the scene with its first Android-based phone, available through T-Mobile. The wireless provider has recently tripled production of the G1 based on huge demand for pre-ordered phones.
Rather than being a Blackberry killer, or any existential threat to any other players in the field, Android could be a boon for the smartphone market. With both Apple and Google in the space now, the two most powerful brands in the world will get their weight behind a new revolution in wireless computing. People who have never bought a smartphone (guilty as charged) will now become interested in upgrading, if they haven't already.
Although I've only seen a demo of the G1, the slide-out qwerty keyboard and what I assume to be great compatibility with various Google apps are enough to get people excited about using the internet on a phone.
So, who stands to benefit? Well, perhaps all of the companies aforementioned, if the total pie suddenly becomes a lot larger. However, Google is the one company that seems to win out no matter which handset maker, or no matter which mobile OS, ends up winning the lion's share of the market.
Why is this, you may ask?
First and foremost, Google wants people to use mobile search. According to Nielsen Mobile, Google already dominates the mobile search market with 61% of the searches, a stranglehold only slightly eclipsed by the company's dominance on the desktop. Since the number of searches executed by smartphone users is staggering compared to those of more conventional cell phones (yes, people like me still use those) Google would do well to make sure that as many people as possible have smartphones in their hands.
But doesn't the mobile search trend cannibalize Google's desktop-based revenue stream? Well, maybe, but who cares. Google will be happy to expand its search horizons to mobile search. Geo-targeting, something that Google has tried to do on the desktop with limited success, has its holy grail in smartphones. If Google can offer up relevant advice based on where you are anywhere in the US, you will likely make many of your commercial decisions through its search service.
I could make up plenty of compelling scenarios to sell extreme relevance and potential profitability of mobile search, but I'll leave that to your imagination. Very quickly you'll realize that it requires very little creativity.
So, Google's entrance into the smartphone market will add even more excitement to one of the best growth frontiers in tech. In my opinion, there will be plenty of opportunity for RIM, Nokia, Apple, and others as well, but Google stands to gain the most from smartphone penetration. Certainly, Google would love for Android to become the standard, but it's really not necessary for the search giant to gain from smartphone use. If Symbian wins out, or if Windows Mobile gains more ground, Google still wins.
Now, if only the greater world economy would cooperate we might see some actual gains in share prices...anyone's shares...please!
Friday, October 10, 2008
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2 comments:
I am a Mac addict, and I use google on my iPhone, and I used google on my BlackBerry because it makes the world a happier place. Honestly, it does.
I find their soon to be released phone impressive and I think that in coming years it will be able to compete effortlessly with BlackBerry. It almost has to though if you consider how much has gone into developing the Android, they built an entirely new OS. I'd love to find out how much the R&D cost was. I pose a theory, if Google does well with this cell phone venture what will they branch into next? Are they setting themselves up to dominate the information field?
Jessica,
Thanks for making the world a happier place. I didn't know it was your handy work :)
I agree, that the G1 should compete well with the Blackberry. However, not having used the Android platform, I can't say for certain that its initial success (based on pre-orders) has to do with anything but Google brand power.
As for domination of the information field, many estimations would have them doing that already. They already dominate search, which is the most powerful informational function...period. If Google can continue to dominate in mobile search--and also expand on its relevancy--they will control not only more and more of the information field, but will also have an increasing share of the worldwide ad market.
Some find this very likely prospect scary. I remain ambivalent. Although I'm leery of great concentration of power in any one organization, I think Google is still the best company out there when it comes to making information freely accessible--and advertising economically accessible--to the masses. So, in the meantime I welcome any strides they make in what they do.
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